Network Analysis for Uncovering the Relationship between Host Response and Clinical Factors to Virus Pathogen: Lessons from SARS-CoV-2.

Analysing complex datasets while maintaining the interpretability and explainability of outcomes for clinicians and patients is challenging, not only in viral infections. These datasets often include a variety of heterogeneous clinical, demographic, laboratory, and personal data, and it is not a single factor but a combination of multiple factors that contribute to patient characterisation and host response. Therefore, multivariate approaches are needed to analyse these complex patient datasets, which are impossible to analyse with univariate comparisons (e.g., one immune cell subset versus one clinical factor). Using a SARS-CoV-2 infection as an example, we employed a patient similarity network (PSN) approach to assess the relationship between host immune factors and the clinical course of infection and performed visualisation and data interpretation. A PSN analysis of ~85 immunological (cellular and humoral) and ~70 clinical factors in 250 recruited patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) who were sampled four to eight weeks after a PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection identified a minimal immune signature, as well as clinical and laboratory factors strongly associated with disease severity. Our study demonstrates the benefits of implementing multivariate network approaches to identify relevant factors and visualise their relationships in a SARS-CoV-2 infection, but the model is generally applicable to any complex dataset.

Federated Patient Similarity Network for Data-Driven Diagnosis of COVID-19 Patients

Sensitive patient data is generated from a variety of sources and then transferred to a cloud for processing. Therefore, it is exposed to security and privacy and may lead to an increase in communication costs. Edge computing will ease computing pressure through distributed computational capabilities while improving security and privacy. In this paper, we propose a Federated PSN (FPSN) model where the model is moved directly to the edge to minimize computation and communication costs. PSN has been applied as a successful approach in categorizing and diagnosing patients based on similarities against some clinical and non-clinical features. Our proposed model distributes processing at each edge node, then fuses the constructed PSN matrices at the cloud premises, which significantly reduce the model's training and inference time and ensures quick model updates with the local client/nodes. In this paper, we propose: (i) an algorithm to evaluate patient's data similarity at the edge;and (ii) an algorithm to implement the federated similarity network fusion at the Cloud. We conducted a set of experiments to evaluate our FPSN model against other machine learning algorithms using a COVID-19 dataset. The results obtained prove that the FPSN model accuracy is higher than the distributed PSNs at various edges and higher than the accuracies of other classification models.

Patient similarity analytics for explainable clinical risk prediction.

BACKGROUND: Clinical risk prediction models (CRPMs) use patient characteristics to estimate the probability of having or developing a particular disease and/or outcome. While CRPMs are gaining in popularity, they have yet to be widely adopted in clinical practice. The lack of explainability and interpretability has limited their utility. Explainability is the extent of which a model's prediction process can be described. Interpretability is the degree to which a user can understand the predictions made by a model. METHODS: The study aimed to demonstrate utility of patient similarity analytics in developing an explainable and interpretable CRPM. Data was extracted from the electronic medical records of patients with type-2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidaemia in a Singapore public primary care clinic. We used modified K-nearest neighbour which incorporated expert input, to develop a patient similarity model on this real-world training dataset (n = 7,041) and validated it on a testing dataset (n = 3,018). The results were compared using logistic regression, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) models from the same dataset. The patient similarity model was then implemented in a prototype system to demonstrate the identification, explainability and interpretability of similar patients and the prediction process. RESULTS: The patient similarity model (AUROC = 0.718) was comparable to the logistic regression (AUROC = 0.695), RF (AUROC = 0.764) and SVM models (AUROC = 0.766). We packaged the patient similarity model in a prototype web application. A proof of concept demonstrated how the application provided both quantitative and qualitative information, in the form of patient narratives. This information was used to better inform and influence clinical decision-making, such as getting a patient to agree to start insulin therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Patient similarity analytics is a feasible approach to develop an explainable and interpretable CRPM. While the approach is generalizable, it can be used to develop locally relevant information, based on the database it searches. Ultimately, such an approach can generate a more informative CRPMs which can be deployed as part of clinical decision support tools to better facilitate shared decision-making in clinical practice.